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Following this past Saturday’s trio of homework races, the Westgate SuperBook at Las Vegas upgraded its 2019 Kentucky Derby futures odds, with Roadster, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, the brand new 9/2 favorite.
The previous two preps before the Run for the Roses on May 4 — the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland — take place this Saturday, along with the outcome of those races could impact everybody’s Derby list.
But is there some value available on Kentucky Derby futures wagers right now?
The ideal scenario for a Kentucky Derby futures contract is to find a horse, or horses, in their two-year-old season which have shown severe talent and the capability to progress. When the first collection of all Derby futures comes out, there is usually a few hundred horses around the menu. You’re hoping to snag a horse using triple-digit odds you seen as a developing monster that can win enough races and keep sound and healthy enough to keep the Derby trail.
And the goal of a Kentucky Derby futures bet would be to see your horse turn it into the gate the first Saturday in May in”live odds” along the lines of 5/1 so, as you are in possession of a ticket you bought months before at 250/1.
While that ideal opportunity has spawned many people by, value may still exist on the futures .
But prospective bets can be dicey, and also the path to the Kentucky Derby is a rocky route for many young horses. If your horse ceases performing well and is taken off the Derby trail, gets injured or just has a cough on race day and can’t compete, you do not receive your cash back.
However many three-year olds are provided in Kentucky Derby futures (the Westgate currently lists 33), only 20 horses will start and just one will cover off to triumph.
And, not to be a total downer, but there’s also the potential nightmare of wagering on a horse beforehand and watching him go off at higher odds on race day.
Such was the case when I made a futures wager on the 2013 Kentucky Derby on a horse called Vyjack. I was happy to receive 17/1 chances a few months in advance of this race and even happier when he left it to the gate in May. I was not so happy when he went at 37/1 at post time, and though the horse didn’t raise a hoof, my choice to bet early robbed me with a potential payout more than double in size.
However, let’s see where the value is different, and where it does not, about the Westgate’s 2019 Kentucky Derby futures oddsboard.
Favorites Without a value:
ROADSTER is your 9/2 favored on this pool off his current winning performance from the Santa Anita Derby, and there is not any value , as it might appear he goes off at comparable odds at post time.
At 6/1, IMPROBABLE is the second choice, and the value isn’t here, either. It is improbable he’ll win the Derby but quite probable he will be in the assortment of 6/1 or even 8/1 on Derby Day.
OMAHA BEACH is my best Derby prospect now in time, and he’s the third option in 7/1 on this listing. But I am hoping to get at least 4/1 or 5/1 on race day, and although there’s a little bit of worth there, I would wait till race time to wager him.
Worth plays:
GAME WINNER, 8/1, has been the favorite in his last four races and hasn’t gone at odds higher than 2/1. Now’s the time, if you like this talented runner. His chances will be about double what he will be in post time.
VEKOMA, 16/1, is arriving of a sharp win in the Bluegrass Stakes, along with his futures odds give you approximately double the value you’ll get on Derby day.
HAIKAL, at 40/1, will provide you about three times the value today than this horse will be in post time.
Best value:
CODE OF HONOR at 25/1. If you like this competent horse, then 25/1 should have you jumping up and down. He should be single digits around post time, and he is surely worth a wager at this long early price.
Longshots with a chance:
SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: 100/1
SIGNALMAN: 100/1
2019 Kentucky Derby futures odds As of Tuesday, April 9 in Westgate SuperBook
ROADSTER 9/2
IMPROBABLE 6/1
OMAHA BEACH 7/1
GAME WINNER 8/1
MAXIMUM SECURITY 8/1
TACITUS 10/1
LONG RANGE TODDY 12/1
VEKOMA 16/1
CODE OF HONOR 25/1
WIN WIN WIN 25/1
WAR OF WILL 30/1
BOURBON WAR 30/1
ANOTHERTWISTAFATE 30/1
SPINOFF 30/1
CUTTING HUMOR 30/1
GALILEAN 40/1
HAIKAL 40/1
BY MY STANDARDS 40/1
PLUS QUE PARFAIT 40/1
INSTAGRAND 50/1
MUCHO GUSTO 50/1
TAX 50/1
COUNTRY HOUSE 60/1
GRAY MAGICIAN 60/1
BODEEXPRESS 60/1
SIGNALMAN 100/1
SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN 100/1
SUENO 100/1
SIR WINSTON 100/1
MASTER FENCER 100/1
FROSTED ICE 100/1
GRAY ATTEMPT 200/1
KNICKS GO 300/1

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